Predictability, in general, relies both on past results and expected results (based on variables not known yet). So far, this is common sense, right?

If you can identify patterns in something, you can predict what may happen next, with a higher probability than without patterns.

Let’s narrow the same thinking down to football (or “soccer”, as some of you may call it), giving you two (rather commonsense) examples:

+ If you observe that a certain team consistently scores at least 2-3 goals in every game, you can reasonably bet on Over 1.5 or Over 2.5 goals.
+ If you have two teams that meet often enough, and both of them tend to score at least one goal in every game, betting on BTTS (Both Teams to Score) makes sense, as “most probably”, that’s what’s going to happen in their next encounter, too.
Again, these are just simple examples, but you get the idea… continuous performance in leagues or championships provide you long enough with consistent data sets and comparable information that enable you to “predict what the future may bring”.

Now here comes the issue with extreme one-off events, like a World Cup that takes place every 4 years. World Cups are “outliers”… Each World cup is different from the previous World Cup in most aspects. The teams’ compositions are not the same as last time, the players are not the same (4 years are a very long time in football history, a team’s history or a player’s career!), the circumstances are not the same (matches played in different venues in different countries), the climate (weather, humidity, temperature, etc.) may be very different from last time, and there is a long list of variables that can potentially impact the final outcome of a World Cup in unexpected ways.

If you take the 2022 Qatar World Cup as an example, it will probably count as one of the most unpredictable World Cups ever. Let’s not even get into details about all the differences that breed unpredictability – you probably made your own observations if you watched the games.

World Cups are unpredictable, and let’s leave it at that. That’s why you should not bet on World Cups, just enjoy football with friends and family – and you can get back to betting after the World Cup. Thanks God it’s only every 4 years and not more often, right?

If you do a quick Google search for “90% accurate football predictions”, you will find quite a few websites and mobile apps promising you the Holy Grail of Mathematical Predictions, TipSaga, SakasticBet, 90soccer, and many more… Let’s be realistic right from the beginning, though: there is no such thing as a “90% accurate football prediction”.

While the above statement may sound harsh to you, and you may not agree with it, just try to be objective and think about it for a second: How would betting companies make so much money and grow so big, if there were 90% accurate football predictions circulating out there, only to be picked up by you and other lucky punters, on any given day? If such highly accurate mathematical predictions existed, betting operators would go bust in no time, and soon there would be no betting sites left for you to use.

“The bank always wins” is not just a dumb saying. It is true in all forms of gambling: casino, lottery, sports betting. Have you won more than you lost during your “betting career” so far, in total? In case you didn’t notice it yet, it may be the time now to be honest with yourself: Are you trying to become a winner in a distorted market, full of match fixing and scammers offering you fixed match results for free? Really?

You may say “thanks for the pep talk, man, I could have lived without that!”…sure, you have the right to say so, if that’s what you think… but you better think about it a little bit longer: is some “AI / computer-generated, well-calculated, highly accurate mathematical prediction” you found on an unverified “leading soccer prediction site” really worth risking your savings, your kids’ tuition fees and/or your mental well-being? Think about it twice! If you still want to give it a shot with a small amount of money you can afford to lose, get tips from verified tipsters only, and even more importantly: Gamble Responsibly!