Predictability, in general, relies both on past results and expected results (based on variables not known yet). So far, this is common sense, right?
If you can identify patterns in something, you can predict what may happen next, with a higher probability than without patterns.
Let’s narrow the same thinking down to football (or “soccer”, as some of you may call it), giving you two (rather commonsense) examples:
+ If you observe that a certain team consistently scores at least 2-3 goals in every game, you can reasonably bet on Over 1.5 or Over 2.5 goals.
+ If you have two teams that meet often enough, and both of them tend to score at least one goal in every game, betting on BTTS (Both Teams to Score) makes sense, as “most probably”, that’s what’s going to happen in their next encounter, too.
Again, these are just simple examples, but you get the idea… continuous performance in leagues or championships provide you long enough with consistent data sets and comparable information that enable you to “predict what the future may bring”.
Now here comes the issue with extreme one-off events, like a World Cup that takes place every 4 years. World Cups are “outliers”… Each World cup is different from the previous World Cup in most aspects. The teams’ compositions are not the same as last time, the players are not the same (4 years are a very long time in football history, a team’s history or a player’s career!), the circumstances are not the same (matches played in different venues in different countries), the climate (weather, humidity, temperature, etc.) may be very different from last time, and there is a long list of variables that can potentially impact the final outcome of a World Cup in unexpected ways.
If you take the 2022 Qatar World Cup as an example, it will probably count as one of the most unpredictable World Cups ever. Let’s not even get into details about all the differences that breed unpredictability – you probably made your own observations if you watched the games.
World Cups are unpredictable, and let’s leave it at that. That’s why you should not bet on World Cups, just enjoy football with friends and family – and you can get back to betting after the World Cup. Thanks God it’s only every 4 years and not more often, right?